Tier 1
A clear top 4.
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| Newton surprised almost everyone this year. |
1. Aaron Rodgers - A clear #1 here due to his age and elite play
2. Drew Brees - Age is a factor however I wouldn't tend to look more than three years into the future and he should continue to produce top 5 numbers during that period.
3. Cam Newton - A totally unique prospect at the QB position. Far exceeded my expectations of what he could do in the NFL as a rookie. A capable passer with a huge run threat, if it wasn't for the risk of a Culpepper like regression he'd be higher.
4. Matthew Stafford - Recently voted AP Comeback Player of the Year (really?), Stafford threw for over 5000yds last season. He's paired up with the best WR in the game and if the Lions have any sense this should continue for years to come.
Tier 2
The next group of players are all ranked very closely for me.
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| The next Peyton Manning? |
6. Andrew Luck (rookie) - The most hyped prospect since Elway. Obviously a huge risk at this position however if he shows even a glimpse of his potential this year he'll be almost impossible to acquire in most leagues.
7. Tom Brady - The oldest player on this list and this is largely what leads to his lower ranking. Continues to put up strong numbers but is far more likely to retire in the next few years.
8. Eli Manning - Just won a Superbowl and this year posted excellent numbers. No reason this can't continue with Cruz & Nicks.
9. Tony Romo - Great receiving weapons in Witten, Austin & Bryant. Robinson probably won't be back but that shouldn't matter with the other talent in Dallas.
10. Matt Ryan - A solid fantasy prospect, you know what you're going to get with Ryan. He had a good second half of the season and with a healthy Julio Jones could continue to improve going in to the 2012 season.
Tier 3
Difficult to separate any of these guys as nothing stands out.
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Jay Cutler
13. Joe Flacco
14. Matt Schaub
Tier 4
This tier is practically interchangeable, many of the players here are in flux and I'm waiting for clarity on their situations before separating them.
15. Matt Flynn - So much of his value is linked to where he goes in FA.
16. Michael Vick17. Alex Smith
18. Andy Dalton
19. Josh Freeman - Terrible 2011 but I'm convinced he can bounce back.
20. Robert Griffin III - Slightly concerned over RG3's transition from a spread system, however if he ends up with Mike Holmgren that should definitely help his chances of success.
21. Sam Bradford - Suffering from Alex Smith/Jason Campbell syndrome. He'll be learning his third offensive system in three years.
Tier 5
22. Tim Tebow
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick
24. Christian Ponder
25. Jake Locker
Tier 6
26. Blaine Gabbert
27. Matt Moore
28. Carson Palmer
29. Mark Sanchez
Tier 7
30. Ryan Mallett
31. Matt Cassel
32. Brian Hoyer
I welcome discussion on any of my rankings so feel free to leave a comment.
Top 10 is very close to how I would have it. Will be interesting to see if Newton and Stafford can stay in the top5 QBs next year.
ReplyDeleteI would dump Flacco out of tier 3 and replace him with Vick. And would still fancy taking Bradford ahead of most of the others in tier 4, but interchangeable as you said.
Really like where you have Dalton and Sanchize(as a hater).
Tempted to move Stafford down a bit tbh. I hadn't realised that he threw the ball 663 times last year, he's unlikely to do that again and his YPC actually wasn't that great.
ReplyDeleteThat is a ridiculous amount. Lions need to find some stability at running back as they where too one dimensional last year, despite Smith coming in and doing a decent job. Stafford seems to go through large periods of games where he plays mediocre, only to step up and play incredible for a quarter. So hopefully he can find a bit more consistency throughout whole games rather than the massive ups and downs. The potential is there though.
ReplyDeleteThe numbers will come down, but I still expect him to finish in the top 7 QBs next year. And given his age/ability/weapons I think you have him exactly where he should be in the rankings.